There are a lot of questions heading into the Tampa Bay
Lightning’s 2017-18 campaign. After two
lengthy playoff runs in 2015 and 2016, the team missed the playoffs last spring
thanks in large part to some unfortunate injury luck and a string of lackluster
play early in the year. It’s thus clear
why many keen observers are wondering exactly which version of the Lightning we
will see this year. Will it be the one
that looks like a Stanley Cup contender, or will it be the one that belongs on
the upper-half of the draft board? Time
will tell.
Making things even more uncertain are the moves that were
made during the offseason. On paper, the
roster really isn’t any stronger than it was to start 2016-17. It’s the same cast of characters, less
Jonathan Drouin and Ben Bishop, with a dose of Dan Girardi thrown into the
fold. You can make a very strong
argument that the roster is actually worse now than it was at this time last
year. The x-factor, of course, is
health. Keeping Steven Stamkos et al
healthy this year could mean a big boost, but it’s also true that most of the
Lightning’s woes last year were on the defensive side of the puck, where their
top guys remained relatively healthy.
So, with all that in mind, what are the keys to the
Lightning’s success this year? Everybody
obviously expects big things from Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and
Andrei Vasilevskiy, but plenty of teams in recent history have shown that it’s
difficult to make a big run without depth.
Especially on defense, where Tampa struggled so mightily last year.
Looking at the 2017-18 roster, the Lightning’s list of
NHL-available defensemen is likely to look like this:
- Braydon Coburn
- Jake Dotchin
- Dan Girardi
- Victor Hedman
- Slater Koekkoek
- Anton Stralman
- Andrej Sustr
It’s admittedly difficult to be overly inspired by that cast
of characters beyond a name or two.
Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman will keep doing their thing, but the
rest of the core is a mixed bag.
Hence, my thesis: The Lightning will sink or swim in 2017-18
based on what they get from Braydon Coburn.
I say this not because I expect Coburn to become a
Norris-caliber guy at 32 years of age, but rather because he is, in effect, the
line in the sand between the top and bottom.
Filling the role of capable number-three, he is the buffer between good
and bad. If Coburn plays well, the
Lightning will see less of a need to balance his minutes with Andrej Sustr and
Dan Girardi. If he doesn’t, though, the
potential consequences are grave.
Unfortunately, the trouble is that it’s difficult to predict
which Braydon Coburn we are going to get in 2017-18. Looking back to when he was acquired by the
Lightning and subsequently extended, things were bleak. Last year, though, something clicked. If the Lightning are going to
contend in 2017-18, they are going to need the Braydon Coburn they saw at the
start of last season.
The potential benefit of Coburn playing well is twofold; not
only would it just be a generally positive thing to have a third reliable
defender on the ice, but it would also give the Lightning three potential
anchors (in a positive sense), one for each pairing. Hedman can be trusted to carry the first
pairing, Stralman the second, and good-Coburn the third. Shielding inexperience would be so much easier,
as would shielding the special kind of ‘experience’ that Girardi is likely to
bring to the ice.
The bottom line: With a mix of young players and
less-than-highly-skilled (read: bad) players set to compete for the remaining
spots on the Lightning blue line, the team is going to need three guys who can
carry the load by making those around them better. They know they have two in Hedman and
Stralman, and Coburn has shown that he’s capable of being the third in the
right situation. They need to find that
situation for him again this season, as he might just be the difference between
a great year and another early golf season.
As always, thanks for reading. And stay safe, Florida.
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