The Tampa Bay Lightning’s start to the 2015-16 season has
been underwhelming, to say the least.
Not only does the team look nothing like the squad that made it all the
way to the Stanley Cup Final last season, but it is also in serious danger of
missing the playoffs. Yes, it’s only
December, but the NHL’s playoff picture has this funny habit of sorting itself
out earlier than the spring. The bottom
line is that most Lightning players have failed to live up to expectations set
based on previous performance.
Emphasis on “most.”
One player who has bucked that trend is J.T. Brown. The 25-year-old, now in his third full NHL
season, has been flat-out fantastic. On
a team loaded with talents like Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita
Kucherov, among others, it’s been Brown who has driven the bus on so many
occasions. In fact, in this blogger’s
opinion, we’re almost at the point where Brown has become an indispensable
bottom-six option for Jon Cooper’s club.
Consider the following as evidence:
If that doesn’t paint a picture of Brown’s effectiveness for
you, nothing will. The fact of the
matter is that he has spent more time generating shot attempts for the
Lightning than some of the games brightest offensive stars. More time in the offensive zone means less
time in the defensive zone, which means less of a chance for the opposing team
to score goals. Dominating possession is
basically the name of the game for the best bottom-six forwards in the league,
and that’s exactly what Brown has done so far this season: Dominated.
I included Ryan Callahan in that graph not because I view
him as one of the game’s “brightest offensive stars,” but rather because I
think Brown has been everything to this team in 2015-16 that management hoped
Callahan would be when they signed him to that outrageous and untradeable
contract. Brown generates offensive
zonetime when he’s on the ice. Brown is
a pest to play against. Brown makes life
hard for the opposition. Are those not
the things that Callahan is being paid $5.8M to do?
Someone will argue that Callahan is paid to produce, and
that offensive production has never been a strongpoint for Brown. It’s true that he may never be a 30-goal
scorer for the Lightning, but it’s also true that he’s been more than adequate
in the production department for a bottom-six forward this season. In fact, he’s been one of the Lightning’s
more efficient producers overall:
Among the 12 Lightning forwards who have skated in at least
200 minutes of five-on-five action this season, according to War-on-Ice, Brown
scores points at the best rate. Better
than Callahan. Better than Johnson. Better than Stamkos. That’s a fact.
While it’s true that his PDO is rocking along at an
unsustainable 104.10 (!), Brown’s on-ice shooting percentage of 8.47%
really isn’t all that far outside the realm of average. There will likely be some regression, but I
don’t think fans should expect Brown to fall off the face of the earth.
What’s perhaps most interesting about all this is the fact
that, among those 12 aforementioned forwards who have played at least 200 5v5
minutes, only Erik Condra plays less at five-on-five every night. Brown currently averages 11.18 minutes of
even-strength action despite the fact that he has been so effective to start
the season. Considering the fact that
the team has struggled on so many nights this season, Cooper shying away from
playing one of his more effective players boggles my mind a little bit. But, we’ve seen this story play out before
with Jonathan Drouin. Some things in
life don’t make a lot of sense.
The purpose of this piece isn’t to suggest that Brown is
going to wake up and turn into a 50-plus goal guy for the Lightning. It's not to suggest that Cooper should be turning to Brown instead of Stamkos late in games when his team is down by one goal. Rather, it’s to argue that he’s turned
himself into a very reliable, dependable, and effective option for a Lightning
club that has been lacking some of that on many nights this season, and that maybe it might make sense to throw him an extra minute or two here or there. Basically, J.T. Brown has been an unsung hero whose song
needs to be sung.
Thanks for reading!
(All statistics cited in this piece, both graphically and in text, are courtesy of War-on-Ice, a premier source for hockey analytics.)
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