Do Lightning fans undervalue Alex Killorn's production?

Arguably the most polarizing player in Bolts Nation these days is Alex Killorn.  One half of the fan base sees his consistent 40-ish point seasons and concludes that he's a sound second-line option for the Tampa Bay Lightning, while the other half looks at his $4.45M cap hit and thinks the team should be getting more production and fewer cold streaks.  It's a debate that raged all year long, and it got me thinking: What is pure point production like Killorn's worth in today's NHL?

I think many fans, myself included, are guilty of evaluating production in the context of the post-2004 lockout salary cap situation.  $7.5M per season, to me, still sounds like an elite player's salary, but recent history has shown us that it just isn't the case anymore.  The standard has been 'revised' by contracts like Connor McDavid's, Anze Kopitar's, Patrick Kane's, and even Steven Stamkos's.  What used to be the going rate for a superstar player is now the salary for a very good player.  What used to be the salary for a very good player is now the salary of an above average player... and so on, and so on.

The impact of this, of course, is that a player like Alex Killorn, who might have gone for $X on the market a few years ago, is now going to $X+$Y today.  So, back to the questions at hand: What is production like Killorn's worth in the modern NHL?  Is Killorn overpaid by the Lightning?  Do fans undervalue his offensive contributions?

Opinion: The Lightning's Fortunes will Sink or Swim with Braydon Coburn in 2017-18

There are a lot of questions heading into the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2017-18 campaign.  After two lengthy playoff runs in 2015 and 2016, the team missed the playoffs last spring thanks in large part to some unfortunate injury luck and a string of lackluster play early in the year.  It’s thus clear why many keen observers are wondering exactly which version of the Lightning we will see this year.  Will it be the one that looks like a Stanley Cup contender, or will it be the one that belongs on the upper-half of the draft board?  Time will tell.

Making things even more uncertain are the moves that were made during the offseason.  On paper, the roster really isn’t any stronger than it was to start 2016-17.  It’s the same cast of characters, less Jonathan Drouin and Ben Bishop, with a dose of Dan Girardi thrown into the fold.  You can make a very strong argument that the roster is actually worse now than it was at this time last year.  The x-factor, of course, is health.  Keeping Steven Stamkos et al healthy this year could mean a big boost, but it’s also true that most of the Lightning’s woes last year were on the defensive side of the puck, where their top guys remained relatively healthy.

So, with all that in mind, what are the keys to the Lightning’s success this year?  Everybody obviously expects big things from Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, but plenty of teams in recent history have shown that it’s difficult to make a big run without depth.  Especially on defense, where Tampa struggled so mightily last year.

Brain Fart: Lightning Sign Girardi to Two-Year Contract

The Tampa Bay Lightning signed Dan Girardi, the former New York Rangers defenseman, to a two-year contract worth an average of $3M per season this morning.  In doing so, they have acquired a defenseman who simply isn't capable of keeping up in today's game, and was bought out in New York as a result.

When you look at Girardi's signing in a vacuum, it is what it is.  It's a bad contract for a now-bad player, but those get dished out in the NHL all the time these days.  Where things get confusing specific to the Lightning is that, just last week, the team gave up Nikita Gusev's rights, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick so they could unload Jason Garrison's contract.  This move was presumably made to open up a spot for one of the kids to play, such as a Slater Koekkoek or Mikhail Sergachev.  Instead, the Lightning chose to give up those assets to get rid of Garrison so that they could fill the spot with a worse player and an extra year of term:

pic.twitter.com/unLMXyuxoC

— Saima (@Saima_1226) July 1, 2017

Tuesday's Tampa Recap: New Threads + A Pending Side Deal

On the new jerseys...

The big happening in the National Hockey League today was the reveal of the new Adidas jerseys that will be sported starting in 2017-18.  All teams underwent a makeover, with most deciding to go with minor tweaks rather than a major overhaul.  The Tampa Bay Lightning's, as an example, will remain almost exactly the same:

A slight refresh as we hit the ice for 2017-18.

📝: https://t.co/77GpGuQfiB pic.twitter.com/LnaHlLB1pt

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 21, 2017

With the exception of the laces being gone on the neckline, Tampa's look won't change much when the squad hits the ice this Fall.  The naked eye won't tell you that this jersey has a crest that is 46% lighter than the old crest, nor will the naked eye tell you that the new threads are 133% more permeable than the previous Reebok jerseys.  The Lightning have something that works, and they've largely stuck to it.  There's absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Lightning, Peter Budaj Agree to Terms on a Two-Year Extension

The Tampa Bay Lightning took care of a minor housekeeping item today.  As per TSN's Bob McKenzie, the Bolts have a two-year agreement in place with backup goaltender Peter Budaj:

Two-year extension for TB netminder Petr Budaj, who has agreed to terms on a deal with an AAV of $1.025M.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 19, 2017

Budaj, 34, finished the season with Tampa Bay last year after being acquired as part of the deal that sent Ben Bishop to the Los Angeles Kings.  In seven appearances with the Lightning, the veteran netminder posted a 3-1-0 record, 2.80 goals-against average, and .898 save percentage.  The numbers don't exactly jump off the page as superb or worthy of a multi-year deal, but Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is obviously hoping that Budaj can recapture some of the magic that saw him lead the Kings for most of the 2016-17 campaign.  What the Bolts are hoping to avoid, though, is the sort of goaltending that saw Budaj become a fringe NHLer during 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Koekkoek, Dotchin Exposed as Lightning Elect to Protect Coburn

NHL expansion draft protection lists were released at 10:00am 10:30am today.  There were no surprises up front or in goal for the Tampa Bay Lightning, with the following players being protected as per Erik Erlendsson of LightningInsider.com:

• Ryan Callahan
• Steven Stamkos
• Tyler Johnson
• Nikita Kucherov
• Alex Killorn
• Vladislav Namestnikov
• Ondrej Palat
• Andrei Vasilevskiy

Where things get a little bit interesting, however, is on defense.  The general consensus within Bolts Nation was that either Jake Dotchin or Slater Koekkoek was going to be exposed, while the other would be protected alongside Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman.  Well, both Hedman and Stralman were protected as expected (duh!), but both Dotchin and Koekkoek were exposed.  The Lightning instead opted to protect Braydon Coburn, who will be 33 years old by the end of next season.

Namestnikov is the Secret Prize in the Lightning's Drouin, Sergachev Deal

The Tampa Bay Lightning sent forward Jonathan Drouin to the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for junior defenseman Mikhail Sergachev yesterday.  In doing so, the Bolts opened up an expansion draft protection spot that was almost certainly going to be occupied by the team's former Number-27.  If Drouin and the sort of mammoth deal he signed with the Canadiens wasn't in the long-term plans for Tampa, the timing of this trade couldn't have been better.  It will allow the team to protect Vladislav Namestnikov, a player who has the potential to be a cornerstone of the team's top six next year.

It's admittedly a little bit difficult to get overly excited about a player who potted 10 goals and 28 points last season, but Namestnikov's situation is a little bit unique.  The underlying numbers, both traditional and 'fancy', give plenty of reason for optimism.